Warning as US will suffer ‘high loses’ in war with China amid rising tensions, says expert

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) played out hypothetical scenarios to study how the US would respond if China were to invade Taiwan. This research was conducted after China announced it would conduct military drills around Taiwan and test-fire missiles after US politician Nancy Pelosi visited the self-governing island.

The CSIS has conducted the war simulation set in 2026 with former Pentagon and US Navy officials acting out scenarios of what would happen if China invaded Taiwan.

The think tank has completed 18 out of 22 simulations and the full results will be completed in December.

According to the current research, a US-led alliance could win against China but it would come at a considerable cost.

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at CSIS, said: “The results are showing that under most, though not all, scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion.

“However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific.”

According to Mr Cancian, the scenarios conducted so far have predicted that Chinese missiles would be able to destroy a significant portion of the American and Japanese navy, while also being able to destroy “hundreds of aircraft on the ground”.

He said: “The reason for the high US losses is that the United States cannot conduct a systematic campaign to take down Chinese defences before moving in close.”

In the last scenario the think tank played out, America lost over 900 fighters and attacked aircraft in a four-week conflict. That is half of the US Navy and Air force’s combat planes.

The think tank has not made any predictions on the number of lives that would be lost if an invasion were to take place.

They have also not been able to estimate what the economic consequences would be if the world’s two largest economies, America and China were to go to war.

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China has been conducting military drills around Taiwan in response to Ms Pelosi’s visit.

According to Taiwan, China has launched 11 missiles into the waters around Taiwan, with five missiles landing in Japanese territory.

On Wednesday, China announced it had completed current military training, but would continue “regular combat readiness patrols” near the Taiwan border.

In a document shared through the state media, China has said it would use force against Taiwan if they could not take the island “by peaceful means”.

The document said: “We will work with the greatest sincerity and exert our utmost efforts to achieve peaceful reunification.

“But we will not renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all necessary measures.”